By: Jeff Knapp
The 2021 season for the Houston Texans is mercifully over with a 4-13 record under first year head coach David Culley, who was fired after the season.
The team ranked 26th in total passing yards (3630) and receiving yards, 32nd in total rushing yards, 1422 and 30th in total TDs with 31. The offensive line was the 9th worst in the league when it came to giving up sacks at 44 sacks. The play calling by Culley was horrendous and he made incredibly bad decisions. The one that comes to mind was against the Browns in week 2. The Texans were faced with a 3rd and 15 from its own 38-yard line. Taylor connected with WR Brandin Cooks for a 13-yard gain, setting up fourth-and-2 from the Cleveland 49. Then the Texans were thrown a lifeline. Browns DE Takk McKinley jumped offsides, meaning the Texans could have another shot at picking up the first on a 3rd and 10, or they could decline the penalty and roll the dice on fourth-and-2 from midfield. Culley picked option C, he declined the penalty and then punted which went for a touchback.
The O-Line was ranked 29th at 52% with pass block win rating and ranked dead last in run black winning percentage at 66%.
Defensively, the Texans ranked 8th in pass rush win rate at 44% and ranked 16th at 31% in run stop win rate. They ranked 28th in total sacks, 6th in total tackles, 9th in forced fumbles and 9th in INTs.
When I think of under achieving for the Texans, the first thing that comes to mind is the secondary. Opposing quarterbacks had a 94.1 passer rating against the Texans defense which was the 12th highest in the NFL. The Texans defense allowed 8 yards per pass attempt which was tied with the Detroit Lions, Baltimore Ravens, and Jets for the highest allowed in the NFL.
The receiving core only had 1 player, Brandin Cook, who was in the top 40 for YAC at 357 and nobody else in the top 100. Cook also ranked 35 with 12 catches going for over 20 yards or more, 22 other receivers had at least 15 receptions of 20+.
Rex Burkhead was their only RB to have any runs over 20 yards, to which he had 2 (many of the big-name players had 6 or more). RB David Johnson hasn’t been the same since he had that monster year in 2016, then got injured in 2017 and played just one game. He had a pretty decent 2018, but it’s been downhill ever since, and we are all still wondering why they traded DeAndre Hopkins.
It’s hard to say the backfield was under achieving, when it was just pitiful to begin with. The entire RB group rushed for 1193 among 7 different players and a total of 5 TDs. 5 players on other teams did that and more all on their own.
We do have to look at some of the bright spots for Houston in 2021.
David Mills, who was a 3rd round pick in 2021 had a much better season than many of the QBs that got picked in the 1st round, not counting Mac Jones. Davis threw for a thousand yards less than #1 pick Trevor Lawrence, but other than that he had more TDs, less INTs and had a higher passer rating than any of them, although It’s hard to judge him against Trey Lance, who only played in 6 games.
Brandin Cooks was a solid receiver for the Texans this year. He had 90 receptions for 1,037 yards and 8 TDs.
On defense, LB Kamu Grugier Hill had 108 tackles, 2 forced fumbles and 3 sacks, while DE Jonathan Greenard had 8 sacks and 3 forced fumbles. Although the DBs were a horrible mess, there was 1 standout in Desmond King, who had 93 tackles, 3 INTS and 1 forced fumble. King is 27 and a solid piece to build with in the future.
Looking ahead to the 2022 season the Texans will be about 19.8 below the cap space and will have some room to work with. They have 3 big contracts that are taking up the most room. Deshaun Watson, Laremy Tunsil and Brandin Cooks. Watson and Tunsil can’t be moved but could possibly be reconstructed. Watson and Tunsil take up about 65.5 Million dollars in cap space but the dead cap money of about 77.8 million dollars is too much to take on. With that being said all three of those men will be on the Texans for 2022 unless Watson is traded, but who’s going to take on that contract and the off the field issues that come with it.
There are about 7 players that can be released including SS Eric Murry and RB Rex Burkhead. Releasing those 7 players will free up about 27.5 million dollars and only give them 3.6 million in dead money. That’s money that can be used in free agency.
When it comes to free agency the Texans will 1st look at who they will try to resign and who they will allow to try the open market. Out of their top 10 largest priced outgoing talent there are only a few that as Texans GM I would want to keep. I would keep DT Maliek Collins, CB Desmond King, LB Christian Kirksey, LB Kamu Grugier-Hill and possibly RB David Johnson if we can resign him for a much lesser contract than the 5 million dollars he made in 2021. Center Justin Britt was the best O-lineman we had when Tunsil wasn’t on the field, so keeping him at the 3.2 he made in 2021 is a possibility. After that, QB Tyrod Taylor, S AJ Moore, WR Danny Amendola and FS Terrence Brooks would all be not signed.
Taking a look at what free agents that would be enticing to sign is all part of the fun. Now, if Davis Mills is the one to keep, which I would since after the following season will give us the Lamar Jackson sweepstakes, but every team will have to break the bank for him and Deshaun Watson’s contract won’t be as big of a burden after next season when his dead money drops about 30 million dollars.
Since the Texans need help all around, I would try to get a few weapons for him to go along with Brandin Cooks. The 3 WRs that come to mind would be Christian Kirk from Arizona, JuJu Smith-Schuster from the Steelers and DJ Chark from Jacksonville. JuJu’s price could be the X factor, but DJ Clark had a solid year and if you pair him up with TE Dalton Shultz or Mike Gesicki, then you have something to work with. Mills hit the deck quite a few times, so I would take a look at a few different O-Linemen. The 1st 2 I’d try to sign would be RT Trent Brown and LG Laken Tomlinson. Adding those 2 with a returning Laremy Tunsil would serve a huge upgrade for the Texans.
The Texans were awful when it came to their DB situation last year so obtaining a good DB would be another early part of my free agent signing. The big fish would be Tyrann Mathieu, but if we go young then I’d take a look at JC Jackson from New England or Rasul Douglas from Green Bay. Both are 26, had about 50+ tackles and 5+ INTs last season.
Suring up the D-line and LB core would be another process. As of this writing Atlanta released DE Dante Fowler, but will his price tag be too steep? If so, there are a few players to look at. Austin Jackson from the NY Giants who had 72 tackles, and 4 sacks, or DE Charles Harris from Detroit who had 65 tackles and 8 sacks. BTW, both men are 27 years old. Up the middle, LB Haason Riddick from Carolina had 88 tackles and 18 QB hits would lead my LB board followed by either Harold Landry of Tennessee or Foyesade Oluokun of Atlanta.
After the majority of free agency is over, we move onto the NFL draft. There has been some rumor of the Texans getting involved in a trade that would send Deshaun Watson to Washington for a 1st rounder and Chase Young. I’d take that in a heartbeat, but with all of Watson’s legal troubles still there, I seriously doubt he will get dealt anytime soon.
This year they hold the 3rd pick in the draft and with as many holes they need to fill, I’m guessing they might do one of a few things.
The 1st thing they do is not trade back and take the best player available. What makes that difficult is who the Jaguars and Lions take at 1 & 2. I’ve seen Hutchinson, Neal and Thibodeaux all as possible 1s and 2s. They can massively upgrade the edge or o-line with either one of these picks or since the Texans were horrible in the secondary, they may also decide to take S Kyle Hamilton from Notre Dame. He has been touted as the best overall player in the draft.
The 2nd choice they have is to trade back with either the Panthers, the Broncos or even possibly Washington so they can get a QB in the 1st round.
If they trade with the Broncos at 9, the Texans might have the chance to select either DE George Kalaftis or Center Tyler Linderbaum.
If they decide to drop back even further with Washington so they can pick up a QB, then they might have a chance to either get DE George Kalaftis or CD Ahmad Gardner.
If they decide to drop back, will the talent they pass up on by not picking either Hutchinson, Neil, Thibodeaux or Hamilton be worth it? Those 4 men are touted as being complete game changers for the foreseeable future.
If I’m in charge, I’m not going to swap 1st rounders with Denver or Washington unless I’m also getting their 2023 & 2024 1st rounders and 2022 2nd round pick and 2024 3rd round pick or something along those lines.
The best case for a trade would be an over eager Carolina team. I’d swap with them and also get a 2023 1st rounder and hopefully a 2022 and/or 2023 2nd rounder and still have the chance at CB Hamilton, OL Cross, DE Kalaftis or even OL Neal if somehow one of them dropped that far back.
During the 2022 draft, I would focus on the OL and defense with 3 out of my 4 picks in the 1st 3 rounds and selecting a WR with my second pick in the 3rd round and hopefully getting RB Haskins from Michigan later in the draft.
This would set up Houston for a much better 2022. I can’t say it would be a winning 2023 season, but I could see 7-8 wins between those roster moves and draft. The X-factor will be what happens with Deshaun Watson’s legal issues.
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