It All Comes Down To This

By Mike Rifkin

The last game of the 2023 NFL Regular Season will have a significant impact. The Bills and Dolphins will face off on Sunday Night; the winner wins the AFC East and will be the second seed in the AFC. While the Dolphins have already clinched a playoff berth, the same cannot be said for the Bills, so if they lose, they could be watching the playoffs from home. 

Last week, the Dolphins ran into the buzzsaw that is the Baltimore Ravens. Lamar Jackson was phenomenal, with 321 passing yards and five touchdowns. The Ravens’ defense forced three turnovers and sacked Tua three times. A positive came away from this game: the play of De’von Achane, who had 107 yards rushing and a receiving touchdown, taking over for Mostert.

The Dolphin’s injury woes continued; Jaylen Waddle and Raheem Mostert were out due to injuries before the game. During the game, the Dolphins lost Xavien Howard and Bradley Chubb. Chubb tore his ACL late in a game that was already over, and now his season is over so that Miami will move on without their top two sack guys in Chubb and Jaelan Phillips. Waddle and Mostert will be game-time decisions for Sunday night’s showdown, as will linebacker Jerome Baker, who got activated off IR earlier this week. The offensive line will get a boost with Robert Hunt’s return after missing the last four with a hamstring injury. 

Josh Allen has owned the Dolphins with 31 touchdowns and five interceptions in his career. In Week four, Allen threw for 320 yards and four touchdowns, three of which went to Stefon Diggs. Diggs has topped 70 yards once in the Bills’ last five games, but the Bills have rode James Cook, who has been great over the last few weeks. The same could be said for the Bills defense that forced four turnovers last week against the Patriots. 

Keys to the game

1. Christian Wilkins and Zac Sieler – The interior of the Dolphins’ defensive line has to be great with all of the injuries. Containing Allen and Cook in the run game will be huge. 
2. Achane – Whether Mostert plays or not remains to be seen. But the Dolphin’s identity is to run the football; Mike McDaniel will have to use Achane a lot on Sunday night. 
3. To blitz or to not blitz – Josh Allen is great against the blitz, and Vic Fangio only sometimes loves to blitz. Do all of these injuries force him to change his game plan? The other thing on defense is, will he let Jalen Ramsey travel with Stefon Diggs? 

Will the Bills win their fourth consecutive division title, or will the Dolphins win their first division title since 2008? It all comes down to Sunday night. Will the playoffs go through Buffalo or South Beach?