Nate’s Notes Thoughts: 2024 NHL Free Agency Edition

BY Nate Moser

With the 2024 NHL free agency window officially opened, there has been a lot of activity between most of the clubs in the league. Through everything that happened through the draft weekend up until as I am currently writing this, here are some thoughts I have on teams heading into the 2024-25 NHL season.

1. The Nashville Predators Look Amazing on Paper

Yes, the key word in all of this is on paper. There are plenty of times, either in the NHL or another sports league, where it appears a super team is about to take power and there is not as much domination to match the hype. One example of this in hockey was when the Toronto Maple Leafs brought former New York Islanders captain John Tavares home. Between him, Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander; they had so much offensive firepower that on paper, they looked to be unstoppable. Then, the Leafs stepped on the ice. Since that group was formed together, the Leafs have won only one playoff series. Management over the years have done their best to try and build around these four, but it has not resulted in a significant postseason run. There are even Leafs fans who believe one of the top players in Marner needs to be moved.

Tying it back to the Nashville Predators, general manager Barry Trotz went to work in free agency and brought in quite the haul of free agents. First, he signed superstar and former Tampa Bay Lightning captain Steven Stamkos to a four-year contract worth $32 million. Then, Trotz inked a former Bolts teammate of Stamkos’ in winger Jonathan Marchessault, who won a Stanley Cup with the Vegas Golden Knights in 2023 and was awarded the Conn Smythe Trophy for playoff MVP as well. He was locked up with a five-year deal worth $27.5 million. Being able to land one of Stamkos or Marchessault is an accomplishment considering how sought after each one was, but being able to get BOTH guys is huge for the Predators and their fans. That is a huge endorsement to what Trotz and David Poile before him built for the franchise. Stamkos and Marchessault join a forward lineup that already included Ryan O’Reilly, Filip Forsberg, Gustav Nyquist, and Colton Sissons.

On the backend, Trotz also added defenseman Brady Skjei, who spent parts of the last five seasons with the Carolina Hurricanes. Nashville signed him to a seven-year contract worth $49 million. Skjei during the 2023-24 season produced 13 goals and 34 assists for 47 points in 80 games. Skjei joins a Nashville blue line that also includes captain Roman Josi, Luke Schenn, Dante Fabbro, Alexandre Carrier, and Jeremy Lauzon.

Lastly, the Predators locked up their number one goalie Juuse Saros to an eight-year deal worth $61.92 million. Saros has been incredible for the Predators since becoming the man between the pipes after Pekka Rinne called it a career. Looking at the Predators roster altogether, they look like they are one of the most complete teams in the Western Conference, if not the whole NHL. It will be interesting to see how much success they are able to achieve on ice, but on paper, they look like they should be dominant for a lot of the next season.

2. Guentzel-Point-Kucherov Should Dominate for Tampa

Losing Stamkos hurts significantly, and he will always be one of the best talents ever in the history of the franchise. Putting Stamkos aside, the Lightning won a player sweepstakes of their own by trading for the rights and eventually locking up winger Jake Guentzel to a seven-year deal worth $63 million. The hockey world is already predicting that Guentzel will be put on a line with forwards Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov. That trio has the potential to be the catalyst for a dangerous offense. The league knows how lethal all three forwards are in their own right, but there is a curiosity there to see how many more points Guentzel may be able to tally with Kucherov and Point. In Guentzel’s career in the league so far, he has posted the following numbers:

• 2016-17 (Pittsburgh Penguins): 16 goals and 17 assists for 33 points in 40 games
• 2017-18 (Penguins): 22 goals and 26 assists for 48 points in 82 games
• 2018-19 (Penguins): 40 goals and 36 assists for 76 points in 82 games
• 2019-20 (Penguins): 20 goals and 23 assists for 43 points in 39 games
• 2020-21 (Penguins): 23 goals and 34 assists for 57 points in 56 games
• 2021-22 (Penguins): 40 goals and 44 assists for 84 points in 76 games
• 2022-23 (Penguins): 36 goals and 37 assists for 73 points in 78 games
• 2023-24 (Penguins): 22 goals and 30 assists for 52 points in 50 games
• 2023-24 (Carolina Hurricanes): eight goals and 17 assists for 25 points in 17 games

If Guentzel is able to notch this many points without playing with Kucherov and Point, he should be able to hit 100 points with them. I think that happens either in 2024-25 or the following season. Guentzel will hit 100 points in a season as a member of the Lightning. That line will be a terror to handle throughout the league, but only time will tell if this group will make it to the Stanley Cup Final and win another championship like they did in the Stamkos Era.

3. The Sabres Still Need Top-Six Forward Help

The Buffalo Sabres entered the 2024 offseason having missed the NHL playoffs 13 seasons in a row. They barely missed out at the end of the 2022-23 season but did not capitalize in the 2023 offseason by making more roster moves. Now, after taking a step backward following the 2023-24 campaign, the Sabres are in need to make moves that will put them on the right path to ending their postseason drought. So far, general manager Kevyn Adams and his staff have been added to Buffalo’s forward group by trading for Beck Malenstyn from the Washington Capitals; as well as signing Jason Zucker, Sam Lafferty, and Nicolas Aube-Kubel. He also added depth on defense by signing Buffalo native Dennis Gilbert to a one-year contract, and also provided depth to the goalie position by inking veteran netminder James Reimer to a one-year deal.

While Adams did a good job in certain areas, Sabres fans are not happy because they still feel that there is a significant hole missing in their top-six forward group. It certainly did not help to buy out the remaining few seasons of winger Jeff Skinner’s contract. Skinner during his time as a Sabre posted the following numbers:

• 2018-19: 40 goals and 23 assists for 63 points in 82 games
• 2019-20: 14 goals and nine assists for 23 points in 59 games
• 2020-21: seven goals and seven assists for 14 points in 53 games
• 2021-22: 33 goals and 30 assists for 63 points in 80 games
• 2022-23: 35 goals and 47 assists for 82 points in 79 games
• 2023-24: 24 goals and 22 assists for 46 points in 74 games

Skinner, since being bought out by the Sabres, signed a new contract with the Edmonton Oilers to play with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.If Adams does not get someone either in free agency like Vladimir Tarasenko or through trade, fans may fully turn on him and they may want someone else making the calls as Sabres GM. Losing the talent of Skinner takes Buffalo another step back when, if anything, they need to add more skill to the offense. There is still plenty of time between now and when the regular season begins in October, but if Adams does not get another top-six forward to go along with players like Tage Thompson and Dylan Cozens, things could get uglier for the Sabres and their fanbase.