By Mike Rifkin
It’s officially free agency in Major League Baseball, and unlike other sports fans usually have to wait until some of the marquee guys sign. Last offseason Shohei Ohtani, a generational talent, was the big star. This offseason another generational talent is the top guy on the market Juan Soto. Soto was traded by the Padres to the Yankees last winter and Soto had his best offensive season ever. Soto had a career high 41 homers, 109 RBI’S (which is one shy of his career high) and had a slash line of .288/.419/.569. Soto then had a great postseason with four homers including the game winning three run shot in game five of the ALCS, nine RBI’S and a slash line of .327/.469/.633. Soto, is the premier guy on the market and said after the Yankees lost the World Series that he’d be open to all 30 teams talking to him, there are only a select few that can pay him what he wants. One of those teams is the New York Mets, who were 11 games under .500 in May, and wound up two wins away from representing the National League in the World Series. The Mets have not won the Fall Classic since 1986, and owner Steve Cohen did say in his introductory press conference that his goal was to win one in his first five seasons. The Mets have a lot of money off their books now and should go hard after Soto, a year after they really didn’t go hard on Ohtani. But what should the fallback look like if Soto signs elsewhere.
The Mets extended three qualifying offers on Monday to First baseman Pete Alonso and Starting Pitchers Sean Manea and Luis Severino. The only one who might take it is Severino, but for this exercise I am going to say all three decline the qualifying offer.
If Soto were to sign elsewhere, the Mets top priority should be bringing back Alonso. Even in a “down” season he still hit 34 homers and had some massive hits in the postseason. Steve Cohen has always ingrained himself with the history of the franchise. If he brings back Alonso, Alonso will own every power record in the franchise’s history and could be considered the greatest homegrown Met of all time.
Whether the Mets bring in Soto or not, they’ll have to add to the rotation. Right now the only rotation pieces for next season are Kodai Senga, who threw a grand total of five innings in the regular season and David Peterson, who had the best season of his career. Personally I like the idea of Tylor Megill and Jose Butto coming out of the bullpen. So of the big three free agent starters the Mets have, the only one I would bring back is Sean Manaea. As well as Severino and Quintana pitched I just wouldn’t bring them back. Severino, because he hadn’t had a healthy season since 2018, is going to look for a multi year deal, which is something I wouldn’t do. As for Quintana, if Manaea is back and Peterson is there, do they need three lefties in the rotation? Even cheap I don’t think I’d bring back Quintana. So, if guys leave, who comes in? Everyone is going to talk about Corbin Burnes, who has a history with David Stearns from their days in Milwaukee. Burnes, will finish in the top five of the CY Young voting again this year, but the Mets will face stiff competition for the stud pitcher. Two guys who I’d have my eye on and both have had big postseason success, Nathan Eovaldi of the Rangers and Walker Buehler of the Dodgers. I wouldn’t go anywhere over three years on either, but this could be something creative Stearns likes to do. There’s also the trade market that can help the Mets pitching staff. One thing is for sure, whatever pitchers the Mets have, they’ll need to cut down on the walks, which were a detrimental factor throughout the season. And they reared their ugly head during the NLCS.
Two guys who I think could be the odd men out are Brett Baty and Jeff McNeil. With the emergence of Mark Vientos at third base, the call up of Luis Angel Acuna, and the impending return of Ronny Mauricio, all of a sudden the Mets have a plethora of middle infielders. That plan also could include bringing back Jose Iglesias, who had a nice season in his return to the Majors. As much as it would hurt to move Baty, a former first round pick, Mark Vientos has earned playing third base. Jeff McNeil won the batting title in 2022. McNeil this season really struggled in the first half of the season, but wound up with 12 homers and 44 RBI’S with a slash line of .238/.308/.384. McNeil did break his wrist late in the season, he did appear in the NLCS and hit a few sac flies, but that was it.
So how I would approach the offseason if Juan Soto doesn’t sign with the Mets. ( All numbers are guesses)
- Re-sign Pete Alonso – 5 yrs/180 mill (option for a sixth if needed)
- Re-sign Sean Manaea – 3 yrs 66 million dollars
- Sign Nathan Eovaldi – 3 yrs 60 million dollars
- Sign either Walker Buehler or Shane Bieber ( 2yrs 36 mil – third yr option)
- Re-sign Jesse Winker (1 yr 4 mill +incentives)/ Jose Iglesias (1 yr 2 mill+incentives_
- Trade Jeff McNeil/ Brett Baty for another SP/CF ( teams to watch: Mariners, Rays, Blue Jays)
- Sign Brooks Raley (1 yr 2 mill), AJ Minter (1 yr 3.6 mill), Jose Leclerc or Scott Barlow (1 yr 2.4 mill
Everything changes if Soto signs with the Mets, but while Soto would be great. The Mets can use Steve Cohen’s money in other ways to compete in 2025.
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