By: Mike Rifkin
At the trade deadline, the New York Mets decided to punt on the 2023 season. This past weekend against the Braves showed how far apart the two organizations are. The Mets are looking to the future. Just look at the prospects they got at the trade deadline Luisangel Acuna (Max Scherzer trade) and Drew Gilbert (Verlander trade) are both in AA and aren’t expected to be on the Major League roster until 2025, along with former first-round pick Kevin Parada, who is playing A-ball in Brooklyn.
While the front office is waiving the white flag, there are still reasons to watch the 2023 team. Kodai Senga has had a terrific year and is sixth in the National League with a 3.30 ERA. Senga’s first year in MLB and America has been a success, but all his starts are must-watch. The other big thing to watch is the development of the young players. Watching Francisco Alvarez, Mark Vientos, and eventually the recall of Brett Baty, and the debut of Ronny Mauricio is something to watch. Alvarez has been better than advertised, especially defensively. Baty was just sent to AAA after a tough stretch. Over the last month, Baty is hitting .122 with six RBI. He also has seven walks to 27 strikeouts and a slash line of .122/.207/.243. Baty will probably be recalled on September 1st when rosters expand along with Ronny Mauricio. Vientos is trying to find his footing in the Majors. But he has to play every day to do that, so whether that’s him playing third base or first base or DH, he needs the regular at-bats to see his future.
The young guys are being added to a core, including first baseman Pete Alonso, who is on his way to another 40 home run season. Brandon Nimmo and Francisco Lindor are locked in on long-term deals. Despite people thinking the Mets might punt in 2024, Owner Steve Cohen has said he will put a formidable team on the field, so let’s look at what a successful offseason would be in Queens.
Let’s start in the front office and coaching staff. Since Cohen took over the club, he has made it well known that he is searching for a President of Baseball Ops. Enter David Stearns, who has the same role with the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers have made the playoffs the last four seasons and are leading the NL Central again. Stearns has built a constant contender despite being 20th in Baseball in payroll. If Stearns were to be hired, his first major decision would be what to do with GM Billy Eppler and Manager Buck Showalter. When you listen to Cohen talk, he doesn’t direct all of the blame on this season on Showalter. But a new President might want to bring in his guy. So if Showalter is let go, watch for the Mets to look at two names: Craig Counsell, who currently manages the Brewers, or Joe Maddon, who was let go by the Angels last year. But was very successful with the Rays and Cubs. If a new manager is brought in, you can guarantee they will bring in their coaching staff. As for Eppler, most Mets fans have changed their opinions on him since last year’s trade deadline. But here’s the question: is Eppler the reason Scherzer, Verlander, Senga, etc., all came over, or was it Steve Cohen’s checkbook? Again, if Stearns is hired, who knows how Eppler would react?
Whether it’s Eppler or somebody else, this is how the Mets need to attack this Winter. First, I will put Shohei Ohtani aside for a minute because just signing Shohei Ohtani is a very obvious move. But we will start with starting pitching. The two locks for the rotation are Senga and Jose Quintana, who has pitched well since coming back from injury. David Peterson and Tylor Megill have to use the rest of this season as an audition for next year. But even if they pitch well, the Mets will need some depth behind them. One guy to watch is Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Yamamoto currently pitches for the Orix Buffaloes over in Japan. He has won the equivalent of the CY Young Award and MVP over there, so plenty of teams will look at him if posted. Another thought is how much money Julio Urias of the Dodgers and Aaron Nola of the Phillies will ask for. Other names that intrigue me are Lance Lynn (who does have a club option), German Marquez ( club option), Lucas Giolito, and Hyun Jin Ryu.
Now, whoever is in charge can look at the trade market for a starting pitcher, and that’s where I could big game hunt. There are two names to look at. You might pull the trigger if the White Sox listen to calls on Dylan Cease like they were at the trade deadline. This guy was in the top three in CY Young voting last season, and it’s been another dreadful year on the South Side of Chicago. The other name is Corbin Burnes. If David Stearns comes in, he might bring his ace with him. Burnes has one more year of arbitration left, and this past Winter, he was not happy with how the Brewers handled the process, but Burnes has kept that from bothering him on the mound. The other trade alternate would be to call the Mariners to see if they want a bat for one of their young pitchers. Another alternate would be to call the Blue Jays and see the potential price of Alek Manoah. Manoah has struggled this year after finishing in the top three in CY Young voting last year. He was just sent back to AAA, but earlier this season, he was sent to rookie ball in the complex league. I’m still determining if he’s available, but checking in wouldn’t hurt anyone.
Onto the bullpen, which should be better based on the return of Edwin Diaz, who tore his patella tendon during the World Baseball Classic. Setup man Adam Ottavino said he will exercise his player option for 2024. Lefty Brooks Raley is under contract for another year. Outside of those three, the Mets bullpen is a significant question mark. Could a reunion with David Robertson be something that interests the front office? Some other names are Ryne Stanek of the Astros and former Mets legend Michael Fulmer.
Now the lineup, where the biggest watch comes in September. Once again, if Vientos, because everyone knows how they flubbed that since last year’s trade deadline. But the other Mauricio and Baty all hit well in September. It might change how the Mets approach the lineup; the key is you have to expect Jeff McNeil and Starling Marte to have years like 2022 and not 2023. They could write a wrong and look at JD Martinez, who is having an excellent year for the Dodgers to be the new DH. If the young players do develop, the Mets need a power bat behind Pete Alonso because look at the lineups within the NL East. The Braves and Phillies both have power 1-9 in their lineups.
At the top of this, I said I was putting Ohtani to the side. Now, let’s talk about the 2023 AL MVP. Would signing Ohtani be great? Absolutely, but look at the price, probably 500-600 million dollars, but it’s not a guarantee he wants to come east. Did Cohen’s comments about fielding a formidable team in 2024 but not spending as much money change with how disappointing this season has been? I can’t be sure, but if the Mets don’t sign Ohtani, there’s only one way that fans can be upset. And that is if Ohtani were to sign with another team on the East Coast. Fans can’t get upset if Ohtani were to sign with the Giants, Dodgers, Mariners, or re-sign with the Angels Mets. But they could be mad if Ohtani were to sign with the Red Sox, Yankees, or Phillies. There is a consolation prize that Met fans could be happy with, and that would be re-signing Pete Alonso to a long-term contract.
There’s a reason to keep watching the 2023 Mets, but the speculation season will begin once that season ends. Once that happens, we will see what Steve Cohen and company are planning after this tumultuous season.
If it’s Eppler or someone else hired by the incoming President of Baseball Ops, here is how I would go about the 2023 Winter. Note this will not say to sign Ohtani but moves that should occur outside of that.
- Extend Pete Alonso – Get the sour taste of the fans out quickly by extending the face of the franchise. Alonso could become the best Mets position player that they have ever developed. He also could have all of the offensive records by the time his career is over.
- Sign Yoshinobu Yamamoto.- The former PCL MVP will be 25 years old if posted this Winter. He has a pitch mix of Fastball, Splitter, Curveball, and Cutter. A 2.1 walk per nine is also solid. The Mets won’t be the only team in on him, but a little Kodai Senga help can help the Mets land another Japanese starter.
- Sign Ryne Stanek or David Robertson – I said when addressing the bullpen the Mets could bring back David Robertson, and I don’t think fans would have a problem with it. But Stanek is six years younger than Robertson and has pitched in big games for the Astros. Bringing in a legitimate eighth-inning guy knocks everyone in the bullpen down a peg, and some guys will need bounce-backs in 2024.
- Trade for Corbin Burnes or Dylan Cease – Burnes has one year of arbitration left after the 2024 season, and if that goes down like it did this year, maybe Burnes wants to avoid going through it again. There may be a match with Willy Adames having one year left on his contract and the Mets having a stockpile of middle infield prospects. As for Cease, it depends on the direction the White Sox want to go in. Cease is not a free agent until 2026, so he has control for at least one season. If either one is available, the Mets should make a call.
- Sign Joc Pederson – Pederson can play in the outfield and get some time at first base or DH. Pederson is not having an excellent year for the Giants, hitting .232 with 11 home runs. But his.345 On Base Percentage and his .415 slugging percentage are nice. The Mets could use left-handed pop in their lineup, and Pederson is a winner.
- Sign German Marquez – Marquez underwent Tommy John Surgery in May, and the Rockies have a 16 million dollar club option for him after this season. If they decline, the Mets can give him an incentive-laden contract, and rotation depth wouldn’t hurt. If Marquez’s option is picked up or the Rockies find a way to work it out, someone like Kyle Hendricks or Lucas Giolito on a short-term deal can also work.
I am not saying all these moves put the Mets past the Braves in the division. But Steve Cohen said he wanted to field a competitive team in 2024. Making these moves and some guys having bounce-back years could put the Mets back in the hunt in 2024.
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